South Africa v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 0
18 July 2026Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What the model says about South Africa v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 18.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Carlu Sadie
- 4Cobus Wiese
- 5Ruben van Heerden
- 6Paul de Villiers
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Vusi Moyo
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Jaco Williams
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Andre-Hugo Venter
- 17Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19Ben-Jason Dixon
- 20Marco van Staden-5.4
- 21Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 22Manie Libbok-3.8
- 23Damian Willemse-5.4
Wales
- 1Rhys Carré-1.2
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Teddy Williams
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Edwards
- 11Ellis Mee
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Max Llewellyn
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Ben Warren
- 19Freddie Thomas
- 20Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 21James Botham+3.8
- 22Reuben Morgan-Williams
- 23Joe Hawkins
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 60.0% | Territory | 40.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 116 | Carries | 74 |
| 513m | Carry metres | 112m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 6 | Offloads | 4 |
| 126 | Passes | 87 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Tackles made | 125 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 2 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 91.0% |
| 20 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 82.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 73 | Rucks won | 59 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Kicks from hand | 33 |
| 823m | Kick metres | 1013m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 17 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.