South Africa v Spain
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 3
10 October 1999Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Spain
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 12.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 5 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ollie le Roux
- 2Chris Rossouw
- 3Adrian Garvey
- 4Fritz van Heerden
- 5Krynauw Otto
- 6Ruben Kruger
- 7Anton Leonard
- 8Andre Vos(c)
- 9Werner Swanepoel
- 10Jannie de Beer
- 11Kaya Malotana
- 12Pieter Muller
- 13Wayne Julies
- 14Stefan Terblanche-3.6
- 15Breyton Paulse-2.6
Replacements
- 16Deon Kayser
- 17Joost van der Westhuizen
- 18Bobby Skinstad+2.3
- 19Os du Randt+3.9
- 20Naka Drotske
- 21Mark Andrews
- 22Percy Montgomery+0.2
Spain
- 1Jordi Camps Riba
- 2Diego Zarzosa Pena
- 3Jose Ignacio Zapatero Ferreras
- 4Jose Miguel Villau Cabeza
- 5Oscar Astarloa Uriarte
- 6Jose Diaz
- 7Carlos Souto Vidal
- 8Alberto Malo Navio(c)
- 9Aratz Gallastegui Sodupe
- 10Aitor Etxeberria de la Rosa
- 11Miguel Angel Frechilla Manrique
- 12Fernando Diez Molina
- 13Alberto Socias Olmos
- 14Jose Ignacio Inchausti Bravo
- 15Francisco Puertas Soto
Replacements
- 16Ferran Velazco Querol
- 17Alfonso Mata Suarez
- 18Luis Javier Martinez Villanueva
- 19Victor Torres Funes
- 20Fernando de la Calle Pozo
- 21Antonio Socias Olmos
- 22Jaime Alonso-Lasheras Rivero
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.