Tonga v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 25
10 October 1999Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium, Leicester · neutral venue
What the model says about Tonga v Italy
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 60 m
- Temperature
- 15.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
52.62430,-1.13295 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 3 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Tonga
- 1Ta'u Fainga'anuku
- 2Latiume Maka
- 3Ngalu Taufo'ou
- 4Falamani Mafi
- 5Benhur Kivalu
- 6David Edwards
- 7Jonathan Koloi
- 8Kati Tu'ipulotu
- 9Sililo Martens
- 10Brian Wooley
- 11Epi Taione
- 12Elisi Vunipola(c)
- 13Semi Taupeaafe
- 14Tauna'holo Taufahema
- 15Sateki Tuipulotu
Replacements
- 16Dave Tiueti
- 17Isi Tapueluelu
- 18Matt Te Pou
- 19Isi Fatani
- 20Sione Tuipulotu
- 21Kuli Faletau
- 22Damien Penesini
Italy
- 1Alejandro Moreno
- 2Alessandro Moscardi
- 3Andrea Castellani
- 4Carlo Checchinato
- 5Mark Giacheri
- 6Massimo Giovanelli(c)
- 7Stefano Saviozzi
- 8Carlo Caione
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Fabio Roselli
- 12Sandro Ceppolino
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Paolo Vaccari
- 15Matt Pini
Replacements
- 16Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 17Andrea Moretti
- 18Francesco Mazzariol
- 19Giampiero Mazzi
- 20Orazio Arancio
- 21Walter Cristofoletto
- 22Franco Properzi-Curti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.