Scotland v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 20
20 October 1999Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 8.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.5 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 1 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch
- 3George Graham
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Doddie Weir
- 6Martin Leslie
- 7Budge Pountney
- 8Gordon Simpson
- 9Gary Armstrong(c)
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12James McLaren
- 13Jamie Mayer
- 14Cammie Murray
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Duncan Hodge
- 17Cameron Mather
- 18Stuart Grimes
- 19Paul Burnell
- 20Robbie Russell+3.0
- 21Alan Tait
- 22Bryan Redpath
Samoa
- 1Brendan Reidy
- 2Trevor Leota
- 3Polo Asi
- 4Lio Falaniko
- 5Lama Tone
- 6Semo Sititi
- 7Craig Glendinning
- 8Pat Lam(c)
- 9Steve So'oialo
- 10Stephen Bachop
- 11Inga Tuigamala
- 12Terry Fanolua
- 13To'o Vaega
- 14Brian Lima
- 15Silao Leaegailesolo
Replacements
- 16Filipo Toala
- 17Earl Va'a
- 18Sene Ta'ala
- 19Robbie Ale
- 20Onehunga Matauiau Esau
- 21John Clarke
- 22Kalolo Toleafoa
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.