Scotland v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 11
12 October 2003Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville · neutral venue
What the model says about Scotland v Japan
- Kick-off
- 10:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 24.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 6 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Robbie Russell+3.0
- 3Bruce Douglas
- 4Scott Murray
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Jason White+12.3
- 7Simon Taylor
- 8Jon Petrie
- 9Bryan Redpath(c)
- 10Gordon Ross+3.2
- 11Kenny Logan
- 12James McLaren
- 13Andy Craig
- 14Chris Paterson+1.8
- 15Ben Hinshelwood
Replacements
- 16Gordon Bulloch
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Ross Beattie
- 19Martin Leslie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Gregor Townsend
- 22Simon Danielli+0.1
Japan
- 1Shin Hasegawa
- 2Masao Amino
- 3Masahiko Toyoyoma
- 4Hajime Kiso
- 5Adam Parker
- 6Naoya Okubo
- 7Takuro Miuchi(c)
- 8Takeomi Ito
- 9Takashi Tsuji
- 10Keiji Hirose
- 11Hirotoki Onozawa
- 12Yukio Motoki
- 13Reuben Parkinson
- 14Daisuke Ohata
- 15Tsutomu Matsuda
Replacements
- 16Masahito Yamamoto
- 17Masaaki Sakata
- 18Hiroyuki Tanuma
- 19Yasunori Watanabe
- 20Yuji Sonoda
- 21Andy Miller
- 22Toru Kurihara
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 83.0% | Possession | 17.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 463m | Carry metres | 305m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 10 | Offloads | 7 |
| 154 | Passes | 123 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Tackles made | 160 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 33 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 18 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 90.9% | Lineout success | 76.2% |
| 20 | Lineouts won | 16 |
| 15 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 90 | Rucks won | 55 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 842m | Kick metres | 832m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.