Tonga v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 36
15 October 2003GIO Stadium, Canberra · neutral venue
What the model says about Tonga v Italy
- Kick-off
- 09:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 617 m
- Temperature
- 13.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.7 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Tonga
- 1Tonga Lea'aetoa
- 2Ephraim Taukafa
- 3Hemani Lavaka
- 4Viliami Vaki
- 5Milton Ngauamo
- 6Inoke Afeaki(c)
- 7Ipolito Fenukitau
- 8Benhur Kivalu
- 9Sililo Martens
- 10Sateki Tuipulotu
- 11Tevita Tu'ifua
- 12John Payne
- 13Gus Leger
- 14Sione Fonua
- 15Pierre Hola
Replacements
- 16Vili Ma'asi
- 17Kisi Pulu
- 18Saia Latu
- 19Stanley Afeaki
- 20Toni Alatini
- 21Johnny Ngauamo
- 22Sila Va'enuku
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon(c)-7.4
- 10Rima Wakarua-Noema
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Manuel Dallan
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Gonzalo Canale
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Carlo Checchinato
- 19Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 20Matteo Mazzantini
- 21Francesco Mazzariol
- 22Andrea Masi-5.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 40.0% | Possession | 60.0% |
Attack
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 370m | Carry metres | 529m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 15 |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 11 | Offloads | 10 |
| 102 | Passes | 105 |
Defence
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 53 | Tackles made | 99 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 76.0% | Lineout success | 86.7% |
| 19 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 80 | Rucks won | 40 |
| 12 | Mauls won | 13 |
Kicking
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Kicks from hand | 32 |
| 1024m | Kick metres | 1194m |
Discipline
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 15 |
Scoring
| Tonga | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.