France v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
51 – 29
18 October 2003Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville · neutral venue
What the model says about France v Japan
- Kick-off
- 09:06 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 24.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Yannick Bru
- 3Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 4Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 5Olivier Brouzet
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Olivier Magne+10.5
- 8Christian Labit
- 9Fabien Galthie(c)+6.5
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Tony Marsh
- 14Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 17Jean-Jacques Crenca
- 18David Auradou-6.7
- 19Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 20Gerald Merceron
- 21Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 22Pepito Elhorga
Japan
- 1Shin Hasegawa
- 2Masaaki Sakata
- 3Ryo Yamamura
- 4Hiroyuki Tanuma
- 5Adam Parker
- 6Naoya Okubo
- 7Takuro Miuchi(c)
- 8Takeomi Ito
- 9Yuji Sonoda
- 10Andy Miller
- 11Hirotoki Onozawa
- 12Hideki Nanba
- 13George Konia
- 14Daisuke Ohata
- 15Toru Kurihara
Replacements
- 16Masahito Yamamoto
- 17Masao Amino
- 18Koichi Kubo
- 19Ryota Asano Inose
- 20Takashi Tsuji
- 21Yukio Motoki
- 22Takashi Yoshida
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Possession | 25.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 529m | Carry metres | 291m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 31 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 15 | Offloads | 6 |
| 170 | Passes | 106 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | Tackles made | 137 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 31 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 73.3% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 82 | Rucks won | 63 |
| 13 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 689m | Kick metres | 656m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 21 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.