Australia v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
91 – 3
8 September 2007Matmut Stadium de Gerland, Lyon · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v Japan
- Kick-off
- 13:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 172 m
- Temperature
- 16.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Matt Dunning+1.3
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Al Baxter
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7George Smith
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9George Gregan
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock(c)+4.4
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
Japan
- 1Masahito Yamamoto
- 2Taku Inokuchi
- 3Ryo Yamamura
- 4Takanori Kumagae
- 5Lautangi Vatuvei
- 6Yasunori Watanabe
- 7Takamichi Sasaki(c)
- 8Hajime Kiso
- 9Yuki Yatomi
- 10Kosei Ono
- 11Hirotoki Onozawa
- 12Nataniela Oto
- 13Koji Taira
- 14Tomoki Kitagawa
- 15Tatsuya Kusumi
Replacements
- 16Yuji Matsubara
- 17Tomokazu Soma
- 18Hitoshi Ono
- 19Hare Makiri
- 20Tomoki Yoshida
- 21Bryce Robins
- 22Kosuke Endo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 68.0% | Territory | 32.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 871m | Carry metres | 158m |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 5 |
| 23 | Offloads | 2 |
| 118 | Passes | 49 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 58 | Tackles made | 90 |
| 5 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 13 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Rucks won | 32 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tries | — |
| 10 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.