Romania v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 24
12 September 2007Orange Velodrome, Marseille · neutral venue
What the model says about Romania v Italy
- Kick-off
- 18:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 21.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Romania
- 1Petrisor Toderasc
- 2Marius Tincu
- 3Bogdan Balan
- 4Sorin Socol(c)
- 5Cristian Petre
- 6Florin Corodeanu
- 7Alex Manta
- 8Ovidiu Tonita
- 9Lucian Sirbu
- 10Ionut Dimofte
- 11Gabriel Brezoianu
- 12Romeo Gontineac
- 13Csaba Gal
- 14Catalin Fercu
- 15Iulian Dumitras
Replacements
- 16Razvan Mavrodin
- 17Cezar Popescu
- 18Cosmin Ratiu
- 19Alex Tudori
- 20Valentin Calafeteanu
- 21Ionut Tofan
- 22Dan Vlad
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Andrea Masi-5.0
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15David Bortolussi
Replacements
- 16Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 17Matias Aguero+1.9
- 18Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 19Manoa Vosawai
- 20Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 21Ezio Galon
- 22Roland de Marigny
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 223m | Carry metres | 155m |
| 5 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 7 | Offloads | 6 |
| 55 | Passes | 84 |
Defence
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Tackles made | 90 |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 76.9% | Lineout success | 81.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 17 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 61 | Rucks won | 45 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 6 |
Discipline
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.