Italy v Portugal
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 5
19 September 2007Parc des Princes, Paris · neutral venue
What the model says about Italy v Portugal
- Kick-off
- 18:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 11.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Manoa Vosawai
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Roland de Marigny
- 11Matteo Pratichetti
- 12Andrea Masi-5.0
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 15David Bortolussi
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Matias Aguero+1.9
- 18Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 19Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 20Silvio Orlando
- 21Paul Griffen
- 22Ezio Galon
Portugal
- 1Rui Cordeiro
- 2Joao Correia
- 3Reuben Cristian Spachuk
- 4Goncalo Uva
- 5David Penalva
- 6Tiago Girao
- 7Joao Uva
- 8Vasco Uva(c)
- 9Jose Pinto Neves
- 10Duarte Pinto
- 11Antonio Aguilar
- 12Diogo Mateus
- 13Frederico Sousa
- 14David Mateus
- 15Pedro Cabral
Replacements
- 16Juan Murre Peke
- 17Andre Silva
- 18Duarte Figueiredo
- 19Paulo Murinelo
- 20Luis Pissarra
- 21Diogo Gama
- 22Goncalo Foro
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 509m | Carry metres | 176m |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 4 |
| 12 | Offloads | 6 |
| 164 | Passes | 77 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | Tackles made | 96 |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 13 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 95.5% | Lineout success | 70.0% |
| 21 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 65 | Rucks won | 51 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 4 |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 15 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.