France v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 21
10 September 2011North Harbour Stadium, Albany · neutral venue
What the model says about France v Japan
- Kick-off
- 06:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 29 m
- Temperature
- 13.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.3 mm
- Wind
- 37 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Fabien Barcella
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 4Julien Pierre
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 8Raphael Lakafia
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Maxime Médard+1.5
- 12Fabrice Estebanez
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Cedric Heymans-0.6
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 18Pascal Pape+1.7
- 19Julien Bonnaire
- 20Morgan Parra-0.8
- 21David Skrela
- 22David Marty+6.7
Japan
- 1Hisateru Hirashima
- 2Shota Horie
- 3Kensuke Hatakeyama
- 4Luke Thompson
- 5Toshizumi Kitagawa
- 6Takashi Kikutani(c)
- 7Michael Leitch
- 8Ryu Koliniasi Holani
- 9Fumiaki Tanaka
- 10James Arlidge
- 11Hirotoki Onozawa
- 12Ryan Nicholas
- 13Koji Taira
- 14Kosuke Endo
- 15Shaun Webb
Replacements
- 16Yusuke Aoki
- 17Nozomu Fujita
- 18Hitoshi Ono
- 19Itaru Taniguchi
- 20Atsushi Hiwasa
- 21Murray Williams
- 22Alisi Tupuailei
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 45.0% | Territory | 55.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 560m | Carry metres | 498m |
| 13 | Defenders beaten | 8 |
| 131 | Passes | 153 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 114 | Tackles made | 73 |
| 8 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 13 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 48 | Scrums won | 42 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 56 | Rucks won | 89 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.