Italy v Russia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
53 – 17
20 September 2011Trafalgar Park, Nelson · neutral venue
What the model says about Italy v Russia
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 4 m
- Temperature
- 9.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Riccardo Bocchino
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Matteo Pratichetti
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Giulio Toniolatti
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
Russia
- 1Vladimir Botvinnikov
- 2Vladislav Korshunov(c)
- 3Ivan Prishchepenko
- 4Alexandr Voytov
- 5Adam Byrnes
- 6Vyacheslav Grachev
- 7Andrey Garbuzov
- 8Victor Gresev
- 9Alexandr Shakirov
- 10Konstantin Rachkov
- 11Vladimir Ostroushko
- 12Alexei Makovetskiy
- 13Andrei Kuzin
- 14Vasily Artemyev
- 15Igor Klyuchnikov
Replacements
- 16Valery Tsnobiladze
- 17Alexandr Khrokhin
- 18Denis Antonov
- 19Artem Fatakhov
- 20Alexandr Ianyushkin
- 21Mikhail Sidorov
- 22Yuri Kushnarev
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 504m | Carry metres | 392m |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 155 | Passes | 132 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 119 | Tackles made | 97 |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 63.6% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 49 | Scrums won | 41 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.