Australia v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
67 – 5
23 September 2011Hnry Stadium, Wellington · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v USA
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 11.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 40 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7Ben McCalman+5.9
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Will Genia(c)+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Rob Horne-3.3
- 13Anthony Fainga'a
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 18Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 19Radike Samo-1.7
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 22Pat McCabe
USA
- 1Shawn Pittman
- 2Phil Thiel
- 3Eric Fry
- 4Scott LaValla
- 5Hayden Smith
- 6Inaki Basauri Flores
- 7Pat Danahy
- 8JJ Gagiano
- 9Tim Usasz(c)
- 10Nese Malifa
- 11Kevin Swiryn
- 12Junior Sifa
- 13Tai Enosa
- 14Colin Hawley
- 15Blaine Scully
Replacements
- 16Brian McClenahan
- 17Mate Moeakiola
- 18Louis Stanfill
- 19Nic Johnson
- 20Mike Petri
- 21Roland Suniula
- 22Chris Wyles
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 48.0% | Territory | 52.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 708m | Carry metres | 193m |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 131 | Passes | 81 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 94 | Tackles made | 78 |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 91.7% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 54 | Scrums won | 51 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 51 | Rucks won | 73 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 5 |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | 1 |
| 6 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.