England v Romania
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
67 – 3
24 September 2011Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Romania
- Kick-off
- 06:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 4.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.0 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Alex Corbisiero
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Louis Deacon-1.1
- 5Tom Palmer+2.1
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Lewis Moody(c)+1.4
- 8James Haskell+0.9
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17David Wilson+7.0
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Tom Wood+0.3
- 20Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Delon Armitage
Romania
- 1Nicolae Nere
- 2Bogdan Zebega Suman
- 3Silviu Florea
- 4Valentin Poparlan
- 5Cristian Petre(c)
- 6Stelian Burcea
- 7Cosmin Ratiu
- 8Ovidiu Tonita
- 9Lucian Sirbu
- 10Dan Dumbrava
- 11Adrian Apostol
- 12Iulian Dumitras
- 13Ionel Cazan
- 14Stefan Ciuntu
- 15Florin Vlaicu
Replacements
- 16Marius Tincu
- 17Paulica Ion
- 18Mihai Macovei
- 19Daniel Ianus
- 20Valentin Calafeteanu
- 21Csaba Gal
- 22Catalin Nicolae
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 801m | Carry metres | 227m |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 4 |
| 181 | Passes | 76 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Tackles made | 74 |
| 4 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 92.3% | Lineout success | 44.4% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 4 |
| 40 | Scrums won | 40 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 60 | Rucks won | 64 |
| 4 | Mauls won | — |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tries | — |
| 7 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.