France v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 19
1 October 2011Hnry Stadium, Wellington · neutral venue
What the model says about France v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 05:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 12.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Luc Ducalcon
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Lionel Nallet-5.4
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Raphael Lakafia
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Morgan Parra-0.8
- 11Alexis Palisson
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Fabien Barcella
- 18Julien Pierre
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 21Fabrice Estebanez
- 22Cedric Heymans-0.6
Tonga
- 1Soane Tonga'uiha
- 2Aleki Lutui
- 3Kisi Pulu
- 4Lua Lokotui
- 5Kele Hehea
- 6Sione Kalamafoni
- 7Finau Maka(c)
- 8Viliami Ma'afu
- 9Taniela Moa
- 10Kurt Morath
- 11Suka Hufanga
- 12Andrew Ma'ilei
- 13Siale Piutau
- 14Viliami Iongi
- 15Vunga Lilo
Replacements
- 16Ephraim Taukafa
- 17Sona Taumalolo
- 18Halani 'Aulika
- 19Joe Tuineau
- 20Samiu Vahafolau
- 21Tomasi Palu
- 22'Alipate Fatafehi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 43.0% | Territory | 57.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 385m | Carry metres | 575m |
| 14 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 116 | Passes | 127 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 131 | Tackles made | 77 |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4% | Lineout success | 85.7% |
| 5 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 38 | Scrums won | 32 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 61 | Rucks won | 103 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.