South Africa v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 34
19 September 2015Brighton Community Stadium, Brighton · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Japan
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 42 m
- Temperature
- 13.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Lood de Jager-4.9
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Schalk Burger+6.0
- 9Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 10Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 11Lwazi Mvovo
- 12Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Bryan Habana+1.1
- 15Zane Kirchner
Replacements
- 16Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Coenie Oosthuizen
- 19Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 20Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 21Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23JP Pietersen+0.8
Japan
- 1Masataka Mikami
- 2Shota Horie
- 3Kensuke Hatakeyama
- 4Luke Thompson
- 5Hitoshi Ono
- 6Michael Leitch(c)
- 7Michael Broadhurst
- 8Hendrik Tui
- 9Fumiaki Tanaka
- 10Kosei Ono
- 11Kotaro Matsushima
- 12Harumichi Tatekawa
- 13Male Sa'u
- 14Akihito Yamada
- 15Ayumu Goromaru
Replacements
- 16Takeshi Kizu
- 17Keita Inagaki
- 18Hiroshi Yamashita
- 19Shinya Makabe
- 20Amanaki Lelei Mafi
- 21Atsushi Hiwasa
- 22Yu Tamura
- 23Karne Hesketh
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 451m | Carry metres | 370m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 10 | Offloads | — |
| 171 | Passes | 124 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Tackles made | 127 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 92.3% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 2 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Rucks won | 81 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Kicks from hand | 36 |
| 523m | Kick metres | 545m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.