Scotland v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 10
23 September 2015Kingsholm, Gloucester · neutral venue
What the model says about Scotland v Japan
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 12.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 7John Hardie
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Ryan Grant
- 18Jon Welsh
- 19Richie Gray-0.1
- 20Josh Strauss+6.2
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Sean Maitland+4.2
Japan
- 1Keita Inagaki
- 2Shota Horie
- 3Hiroshi Yamashita
- 4Luke Thompson
- 5Justin Ives
- 6Michael Leitch(c)
- 7Michael Broadhurst
- 8Amanaki Lelei Mafi
- 9Fumiaki Tanaka
- 10Harumichi Tatekawa
- 11Kenki Fukuoka
- 12Yu Tamura
- 13Male Sa'u
- 14Kotaro Matsushima
- 15Ayumu Goromaru
Replacements
- 16Takeshi Kizu
- 17Masataka Mikami
- 18Kensuke Hatakeyama
- 19Shinya Makabe
- 20Shoji Ito
- 21Hendrik Tui
- 22Atsushi Hiwasa
- 23Karne Hesketh
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 40.0% | Possession | 60.0% |
| 36.0% | Territory | 64.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 347m | Carry metres | 352m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 16 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 8 | Offloads | 6 |
| 118 | Passes | 169 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 197 | Tackles made | 111 |
| 94.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | — |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Rucks won | 123 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 10 |
| 326m | Kick metres | 201m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.