Australia v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
65 – 3
27 September 2015Villa Park, Birmingham · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 11:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 106 m
- Temperature
- 10.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Toby Smith
- 4Dean Mumm(c)+2.1
- 5Will Skelton+6.1
- 6Ben McCalman+5.9
- 7Sean McMahon+6.7
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Henry Speight
- 14Joseph Tomane
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 18Greg Holmes+9.7
- 19Kane Douglas-3.4
- 20Rob Simmons-1.5
- 21Will Genia+2.0
- 22Bernard Foley-0.8
- 23Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
Uruguay
- 1Mateo Sanguinetti
- 2Germán Kessler
- 3Mario Sagario
- 4Santiago Vilaseca Hontou(c)
- 5Franco Lamanna
- 6Juan De Freitas
- 7Matias Beer
- 8Juan Gaminara
- 9Agustin Ormaechea
- 10Felipe Berchesi
- 11Rodrigo Silva
- 12Andrés Vilaseca
- 13Joaquin Prada
- 14Leandro Leivas
- 15Gaston Mieres
Replacements
- 16Nicolas Klappenbach Zucchi
- 17Oscar Duran de Bertolaza
- 18Carlos Arboleya Sarazola
- 19Alejandro Nieto
- 20Diego Magno
- 21Fernando Bascou Ringeltaube
- 22Alejo Duran Parletti
- 23Alberto Roman
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 796m | Carry metres | 196m |
| 19 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 46 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 8 | Offloads | 5 |
| 161 | Passes | 74 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Tackles made | 102 |
| 89.0% | Tackle success | 69.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 46 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 57.1% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 582m | Kick metres | 264m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | — |
| 5 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.