France v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 18
1 October 2015stadium:mk, Milton Keynes · neutral venue
What the model says about France v Canada
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 63 m
- Temperature
- 12.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Eddy Ben Arous
- 2Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Yoann Maestri
- 6Thierry Dusautoir(c)-3.4
- 7Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 8Damien Chouly
- 9Sebastien Tillous-Borde
- 10Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 11Brice Dulin-3.5
- 12Wesley Fofana-9.3
- 13Mathieu Bastareaud-0.6
- 14Remy Grosso
- 15Scott Spedding
Replacements
- 16Benjamin Kayser-4.5
- 17Vincent Debaty
- 18Nicolas Mas-1.0
- 19Yannick Nyanga Kabasele+2.5
- 20Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 21Morgan Parra-0.8
- 22Remi Tales
- 23Alexandre Dumoulin
Canada
- 1Hubert Buydens
- 2Aaron Carpenter
- 3Doug Wooldridge
- 4Brett Beukeboom
- 5Jamie Cudmore
- 6Kyle Gilmour
- 7Richard Thorpe
- 8Tyler Ardron(c)
- 9Phil Mack
- 10Nathan Hirayama
- 11DTH Van Der Merwe
- 12Nick Blevins
- 13Ciaran Hearn
- 14Phil MacKenzie
- 15Matt Evans
Replacements
- 16Ray Barkwill
- 17Djustice Sears-Duru
- 18Andrew Tiedemann
- 19Evan Olmstead
- 20Nanyak Dala
- 21Gordon McRorie
- 22Harry Jones
- 23Conor Trainor
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 54.0% | Possession | 46.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 499m | Carry metres | 424m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 23 |
| 5 | Offloads | 8 |
| 143 | Passes | 141 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Tackles made | 133 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 86.0% |
| 23 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 79 | Rucks won | 77 |
| 6 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 470m | Kick metres | 483m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.