Argentina v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 16
4 October 2015Leicester City Stadium, Leicester · neutral venue
What the model says about Argentina v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 11.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Martin Landajo
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Juan Pablo Orlandi
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Facundo Isa+1.6
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias-5.1
- 23Horacio Agulla
Tonga
- 1Soane Tonga'uiha
- 2Elvis Taione
- 3Halani 'Aulika
- 4Lua Lokotui
- 5Joe Tuineau
- 6Sione Kalamafoni
- 7Nili Latu(c)
- 8Viliami Ma'afu
- 9Sonatane Takulua
- 10Kurt Morath
- 11Fetu'u Vainikolo
- 12Sione Piukala
- 13Siale Piutau
- 14Telusa Veainu
- 15Vunga Lilo
Replacements
- 16Aleki Lutui
- 17Sona Taumalolo
- 18Sila Puafisi
- 19Steve Mafi
- 20Opeti Fonua
- 21Samisoni Fisilau
- 22Latiume Fosita
- 23David Halaifonua
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 41.0% | Possession | 59.0% |
| 39.0% | Territory | 61.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 628m | Carry metres | 448m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 30 |
| 8 | Offloads | 19 |
| 129 | Passes | 186 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Tackles made | 80 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 70.0% |
| 30 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 11 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 90.9% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 2 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 58 | Rucks won | 93 |
| — | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kicks from hand | 14 |
| 355m | Kick metres | 190m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.