South Africa v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
64 – 0
7 October 2015London Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v USA
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 13.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Fourie du Preez(c)+10.4
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Lwazi Mvovo
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Bryan Habana+1.1
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Schalk Brits
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Coenie Oosthuizen
- 19Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Rudy Paige
- 22Morne Steyn-3.6
- 23Jan Serfontein+12.9
USA
- 1Olive Kilifi
- 2Phil Thiel
- 3Chris Baumann
- 4Louis Stanfill
- 5Matt Trouville
- 6Danny Barrett
- 7John Quill
- 8Samu Manoa(c)
- 9Niku Kruger
- 10Shalom Suniula
- 11Zack Test
- 12Andrew Suniula
- 13Folau Niua
- 14Brett Thompson
- 15Blaine Scully
Replacements
- 16Joe Taufete'e
- 17Zach Fenoglio
- 18Mate Moeakiola
- 19Titi Lamositele
- 20Cam Dolan
- 21Al McFarland
- 22Mike Petri
- 23Chris Wyles
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 54.0% | Possession | 46.0% |
| 61.0% | Territory | 39.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 561m | Carry metres | 299m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 7 | Offloads | 2 |
| 156 | Passes | 129 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 137 | Tackles made | 134 |
| 93.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 93.8% | Lineout success | — |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 9 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | Rucks won | 81 |
| 8 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 28 |
| 488m | Kick metres | 362m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tries | — |
| 7 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.