Romania v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 32
11 October 2015Sandy Park, Exeter · neutral venue
What the model says about Romania v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 12.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Romania
- 1Mihaita Lazar
- 2Otar Turashvili
- 3Paulica Ion
- 4Valentin Poparlan
- 5Johan van Heerden
- 6Valentin Ursache(c)
- 7Viorel Lucaci
- 8Daniel Carpo
- 9Valentin Calafeteanu
- 10Mike Wiringi
- 11Ionut Botezatu
- 12Florin Vlaicu
- 13Paula Kinikinilau
- 14Madalin Lemnaru
- 15Catalin Fercu
Replacements
- 16Andrei Radoi
- 17Andrei Ursache
- 18Horatiu Pungea
- 19Marius Antonescu
- 20Stelian Burcea
- 21Tudorel Bratu
- 22Adrian Apostol
- 23Csaba Gal
Italy
- 1Matias Aguero+1.9
- 2Andrea Manici
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys(c)
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Alberto de Marchi
- 18Dario Chistolini
- 19Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 20Samu Vunisa
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Enrico Bacchin
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0% | Possession | 37.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 315m | Carry metres | 311m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 7 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 7 | Offloads | 11 |
| 133 | Passes | 108 |
Defence
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 63 | Tackles made | 146 |
| 75.0% | Tackle success | 95.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 88.9% | Lineout success | 81.3% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 97 | Rucks won | 45 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Kicks from hand | 36 |
| 417m | Kick metres | 400m |
Discipline
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Romania | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.