Japan v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 63
4 November 2017International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama
What the model says about Japan v Australia
- Kick-off
- 05:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 15 m
- Temperature
- 14.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 37 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
35.50999,139.60638 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Keita Inagaki
- 2Shota Horie
- 3Takuma Asahara
- 4Kazuki Himeno
- 5Uwe Helu
- 6Michael Leitch
- 7Shunsuke Nunomaki
- 8Amanaki Lelei Mafi
- 9Fumiaki Tanaka
- 10Rikiya Matsuda
- 11Ryuji Noguchi
- 12Harumichi Tatekawa
- 13Timothy Lafaele
- 14Lomano Lemeki
- 15Kotaro Matsushima
Replacements
- 16Atsushi Sakate
- 17Koki Yamamoto
- 18Asaeli Ai Valu
- 19Wimpie van der Walt
- 20Fetuani Lautaimi
- 21Yutaka Nagare
- 22Yu Tamura
- 23Sione Teaupa
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Ned Hanigan
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Sean McMahon+6.7
- 9Nick Phipps-0.5
- 10Reece Hodge
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Henry Speight
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Stephen Moore+5.5
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Matt Philip
- 20Ben McCalman+5.9
- 21Lopeti Timani
- 22Joe Powell
- 23Curtis Rona
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 9 |
| 3 | Conversions | 9 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.