Argentina v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 12
28 September 2019Hanazono Rugby Stadium, Osaka
What the model says about Argentina v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 04:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 25.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Juan Figallo-4.0
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera(c)-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Benjamin Urdapilleta
- 11Santiago Carreras
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Matias Orlando-3.8
- 14Matías Moroni-12.4
- 15Emiliano Boffelli
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Santiago Medrano
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Javier Ortega Desio
- 21Felipe Ezcurra
- 22Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 23Bautista Delguy+4.7
Tonga
- 1Siegfried Fisiʻihoi
- 2Paula Ngauamo
- 3Ben Tameifuna
- 4Sam Lousi
- 5Leva Fifita
- 6Sione Kalamafoni
- 7Zane Kapeli
- 8Maama Vaipulu
- 9Sonatane Takulua
- 10James Faiva
- 11David Halaifonua
- 12Siale Piutau(c)
- 13Malietoa Hingano
- 14Viliami Lolohea
- 15Telusa Veainu
Replacements
- 16Sosefo Sakalia
- 17Vunipola Fifita
- 18Ma'afu Fia
- 19Steve Mafi
- 20Fotu Lokotui
- 21Leon Fukofuka
- 22Latiume Fosita
- 23Cooper Vuna
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 61.0% | Territory | 39.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 373m | Carry metres | 217m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 7 | Defenders beaten | 28 |
| 2 | Offloads | 8 |
| 146 | Passes | 102 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Tackles made | 129 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 95.0% |
| 28 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 87.5% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Rucks won | 62 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 717m | Kick metres | 628m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.