Japan v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 12
28 September 2019Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa
What the model says about Japan v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 07:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 60 m
- Temperature
- 23.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Keita Inagaki
- 2Shota Horie
- 3Jiwon Gu
- 4Luke Thompson
- 5James Moore
- 6Kazuki Himeno
- 7Pieter Labuschagne(c)
- 8Amanaki Lelei Mafi
- 9Yutaka Nagare
- 10Yu Tamura
- 11Lomano Lemeki
- 12Ryoto Nakamura
- 13Timothy Lafaele
- 14Kotaro Matsushima
- 15Ryohei Yamanaka
Replacements
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best(c)
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8CJ Stander
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Jack Carty
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Chris Farrell
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 20Rhys Ruddock
- 21Luke McGrath
- 22Joey Carbery+2.6
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 48.0% | Territory | 52.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 503m | Carry metres | 318m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 10 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 4 | Offloads | 6 |
| 201 | Passes | 166 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 176 | Tackles made | 171 |
| 93.0% | Tackle success | 90.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | 81.8% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 115 | Rucks won | 107 |
| — | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 585m | Kick metres | 586m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.