South Africa v Namibia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 3
28 September 2019City of Toyota Stadium
What the model says about South Africa v Namibia
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
No reading on file for this ground and day. This ground's coordinate has not been checked against the country it is in, so no altitude or conditions are published for it.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4RG Snyman+8.1
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 8Schalk Brits(c)
- 9Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Makazole Mapimpi+2.2
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Lukhanyo Am-2.4
- 14Sbu Nkosi
- 15Warrick Gelant
Replacements
- 16Steven Kitshoff
- 17Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 18Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 19Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 20Franco Mostert-1.0
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Damian de Allende-0.1
- 23Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
Namibia
- 1Des Sethie
- 2Louis van der Westhuizen
- 3AJ de Klerk
- 4Johan Retief
- 5Tjiuee Uanivi(c)
- 6Thomasau Forbes
- 7Max Katjijeko
- 8Adriaan Booysen
- 9Eugene Jantjies
- 10Cliven Loubser
- 11Lesley Klim
- 12PJ Walters
- 13JC Greyling
- 14Chad Plato
- 15Johan Tromp
Replacements
- 16Obert Nortje
- 17Andre Rademeyer
- 18Aranos Coetzee
- 19Prince ǃGaoseb
- 20Janco Venter
- 21Wian Conradie
- 22Helarius Kisting
- 23Johan Deysel
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | Possession | 40.0% |
| 71.0% | Territory | 29.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 562m | Carry metres | 158m |
| 19 | Clean breaks | — |
| 34 | Defenders beaten | 9 |
| 12 | Offloads | 3 |
| 130 | Passes | 62 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Tackles made | 138 |
| 90.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 34 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 90.9% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 80 | Rucks won | 43 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 508m | Kick metres | 395m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 16 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | — |
| 6 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.