France v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 9
2 October 2019Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
What the model says about France v USA
- Kick-off
- 07:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 29 m
- Temperature
- 25.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.2 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Camille Chat-3.8
- 3Emerick Setiano
- 4Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 5Paul Gabrillagues
- 6Arthur Iturria
- 7Yacouba Camara
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Maxime Machenaud-2.8
- 10Camille Lopez+2.7
- 11Yoann Huget+2.1
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Sofiane Guitoune
- 14Alivereti Raka
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 18Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 19Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 20Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 21Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 22Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 23Maxime Médard+1.5
USA
- 1Eric Fry
- 2Joe Taufete'e
- 3Titi Lamositele
- 4Nate Brakeley
- 5Nick Civetta
- 6Tony Lamborn
- 7Hanco Germishuys
- 8Cam Dolan
- 9Shaun Davies
- 10AJ MacGinty
- 11Martin Iosefo
- 12Bryce Campbell
- 13Marcel Brache
- 14Blaine Scully
- 15Mike Te'o
Replacements
- 16Dylan Fawsitt
- 17Olive Kilifi
- 18Paul Mullen
- 19Greg Peterson
- 20Ben Pinkelman
- 21Ruben de Haas
- 22Will Magie
- 23Thretton Palamo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 59.0% | Territory | 41.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 472m | Carry metres | 177m |
| 14 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 14 | Offloads | 3 |
| 152 | Passes | 90 |
Defence
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 97 | Tackles made | 148 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 88.2% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 94 | Rucks won | 67 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 675m | Kick metres | 619m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.