France v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 21
6 October 2019Egao Health (Umakana Yokana) Stadium
What the model says about France v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 07:45 UTC
No reading on file for this ground and day. This ground has not been located, so no altitude or conditions are published for it.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot(c)-4.1
- 2Camille Chat-3.8
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Paul Gabrillagues
- 5Sebastien Vahaamahina+0.8
- 6Wenceslas Lauret-2.6
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Alivereti Raka
- 12Sofiane Guitoune
- 13Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Maxime Médard+1.5
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Cyril Baille+5.5
- 18Emerick Setiano
- 19Bernard Le Roux+3.0
- 20Yacouba Camara
- 21Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 22Camille Lopez+2.7
- 23Pierre-Louis Barassi
Tonga
- 1Siegfried Fisiʻihoi
- 2Paula Ngauamo
- 3Ma'afu Fia
- 4Sam Lousi
- 5Leva Fifita
- 6Sione Kalamafoni
- 7Zane Kapeli
- 8Maama Vaipulu
- 9Sonatane Takulua
- 10James Faiva
- 11David Halaifonua
- 12Siale Piutau(c)
- 13Malietoa Hingano
- 14Cooper Vuna
- 15Telusa Veainu
Replacements
- 16Sosefo Sakalia
- 17Vunipola Fifita
- 18Siua Halanukonuka
- 19Daniel Faleafa
- 20Nasi Manu
- 21Leon Fukofuka
- 22Latiume Fosita
- 23Atieli Pakalani
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | Possession | 61.0% |
| 39.0% | Territory | 61.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 564m | Carry metres | 255m |
| 14 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 20 |
| 14 | Offloads | 4 |
| 104 | Passes | 111 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 134 | Tackles made | 108 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 20 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 87.5% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 2 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 60 | Rucks won | 89 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 738m | Kick metres | 663m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.