South Africa v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
66 – 7
8 October 2019Kobe Misaki Stadium, Kobe
What the model says about South Africa v Canada
- Kick-off
- 10:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 19.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.6 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 2Schalk Brits
- 3Vincent Koch-5.2
- 4RG Snyman+8.1
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi(c)+2.4
- 7Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 8Francois Louw+9.7
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Elton Jantjies+0.2
- 11Sbu Nkosi
- 12Francois Steyn+7.8
- 13Damian de Allende-0.1
- 14Warrick Gelant
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Steven Kitshoff
- 18Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 19Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 20Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 21Herschel Jantjies+3.4
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
Canada
- 1Hubert Buydens
- 2Andrew Quattrin
- 3Jake Ilnicki
- 4Evan Olmstead
- 5Kyle Baillie
- 6Lucas Rumball
- 7Matt Heaton
- 8Tyler Ardron(c)
- 9Phil Mack
- 10Peter Nelson
- 11DTH Van Der Merwe
- 12Ciaran Hearn
- 13Conor Trainor
- 14Jeff Hassler
- 15Andrew Coe
Replacements
- 16Benoit Piffero
- 17Djustice Sears-Duru
- 18Matt Tierney
- 19Josh Larsen
- 20Mike Sheppard
- 21Jamie Mackenzie
- 22Shane O'Leary
- 23Guiseppe du Toit
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0% | Possession | 37.0% |
| 66.0% | Territory | 34.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 669m | Carry metres | 215m |
| 25 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 47 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 9 | Offloads | 2 |
| 173 | Passes | 62 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Tackles made | 123 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 47 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 79 | Rucks won | 40 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 750m | Kick metres | 327m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tries | 1 |
| 8 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.