Argentina v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 17
9 October 2019Kumagaya Rugby Stadium, Saitama
What the model says about Argentina v USA
- Kick-off
- 04:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 11 m
- Temperature
- 18.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Santiago Medrano
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera(c)-1.1
- 7Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 8Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 9Felipe Ezcurra
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Santiago Carreras
- 12Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 13Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Enrique Pieretto-5.3
- 19Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 20Tomas Lezana-4.2
- 21Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 22Benjamin Urdapilleta
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
USA
- 1Eric Fry
- 2Joe Taufete'e
- 3Titi Lamositele
- 4Nate Brakeley
- 5Greg Peterson
- 6Tony Lamborn
- 7Hanco Germishuys
- 8Cam Dolan
- 9Ruben de Haas
- 10AJ MacGinty
- 11Marcel Brache
- 12Paul Lasike
- 13Bryce Campbell
- 14Blaine Scully(c)
- 15Mike Te'o
Replacements
- 16Dylan Fawsitt
- 17Olive Kilifi
- 18Paul Mullen
- 19Ben Landry
- 20Ben Pinkelman
- 21Nate Augspurger
- 22Will Hooley
- 23Martin Iosefo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | Possession | 52.0% |
| 47.0% | Territory | 53.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 588m | Carry metres | 290m |
| 19 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 48 | Defenders beaten | 27 |
| 12 | Offloads | 5 |
| 168 | Passes | 170 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 149 | Tackles made | 129 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 73.0% |
| 27 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 48 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 92.9% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 82 | Rucks won | 97 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 18 |
| 690m | Kick metres | 444m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 6 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.