Wales v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 17
9 October 2019Showa Denko Dome Oita, Oita
What the model says about Wales v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 09:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 146 m
- Temperature
- 17.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Wyn Jones+0.5
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Josh Navidi+6.8
- 7James Davies
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 19Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 20Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 21Tomos Williams+0.8
- 22Rhys Patchell
- 23Owen Watkin-4.4
Fiji
- 1Campese Ma'afu
- 2Sam Matavesi
- 3Manasa Saulo
- 4Tevita Cavubati
- 5Leone Nakarawa
- 6Dominiko Waqaniburotu(c)
- 7Semi Kunatani
- 8Viliame Mata
- 9Frank Lomani
- 10Ben Volavola
- 11Semi Radradra
- 12Levani Botia
- 13Waisea Nayacalevu
- 14Josua Tuisova
- 15Kini Murimurivalu
Replacements
- 16Mesulame Dolokoto
- 17Eroni Mawi
- 18Peni Ravai+5.9
- 19Api Ratuniyarawa
- 20Peceli Yato
- 21Nikola Matawalu
- 22Jale Vatubua
- 23Josh Matavesi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 40.0% | Possession | 60.0% |
| 43.0% | Territory | 57.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 384m | Carry metres | 465m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 8 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 32 |
| 5 | Offloads | 7 |
| 121 | Passes | 167 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 126 | Tackles made | 72 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 32 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 87.5% | Lineout success | 93.3% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 10 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | Rucks won | 77 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 625m | Kick metres | 616m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.