Ireland v Romania
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
82 – 8
9 September 2023Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux
What the model says about Ireland v Romania
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 25.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Jeremy Loughman
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Jack Crowley
- 23Mack Hansen-4.3
Romania
- 1Iulian Hartig
- 2Ovidiu Cojocaru
- 3Alex Gordas
- 4Adrian Motoc
- 5Stefan Iancu
- 6Florian Rosu
- 7Vlad Neculau
- 8Cristian Chirica(c)
- 9Gabriel Rupanu
- 10Hinckley Vaovasa
- 11Tevita Manumua
- 12Fonovai Tangimana
- 13Jason Tomane
- 14Nicolas Onutu
- 15Marius Simionescu
Replacements
- 16Florin Bardasu
- 17Alexandru Savin
- 18Gheorghe Gajion
- 19Marius Iftimiciuc
- 20Dragos Ser
- 21Alin Conache
- 22Tudor Boldor
- 23Taylor Gontineac
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0% | Possession | 33.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 1098m | Carry metres | 312m |
| 21 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 40 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 27 | Offloads | 1 |
| 280 | Passes | 48 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 64 | Tackles made | 164 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 66.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 40 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 13 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 89.0% | Scrum success | 89.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 91.0% |
| 91 | Rucks won | 30 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 738m | Kick metres | 1025m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tries | 1 |
| 11 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.