France v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 12
14 September 2023Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille
What the model says about France v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 41 m
- Temperature
- 17.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Pierre Bourgarit
- 3Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 6Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 7Sekou Macalou
- 8Anthony Jelonch(c)+7.2
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Antoine Hastoy
- 11Gabin Villière
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Arthur Vincent
- 14Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 15Melvyn Jaminet
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Sipili Falatea
- 19Bastien Chalureau
- 20Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 21François Cros+9.1
- 22Baptiste Couilloud
- 23Thomas Ramos+6.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 47.0% | Territory | 53.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 420m | Carry metres | 281m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 13 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 9 | Offloads | 2 |
| 98 | Passes | 118 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 93 | Tackles made | 89 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 69.0% | Scrum success | 56.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 48 | Rucks won | 64 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 541m | Kick metres | 272m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.