Ireland v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
59 – 16
16 September 2023Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
What the model says about Ireland v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 30 m
- Temperature
- 21.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Ryan Baird-0.9
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Robbie Henshaw-3.3
Tonga
- 1Siegfried Fisiʻihoi
- 2Paula Ngauamo
- 3Ben Tameifuna(c)
- 4Sam Lousi
- 5Leva Fifita
- 6Tanginoa Halaifonua
- 7Sione Havili Talitui
- 8Vaea Fifita
- 9Augustine Pulu
- 10William Havili
- 11Solomone Kata
- 12Pita Ahki
- 13Malakai Fekitoa
- 14Afusipa Taumoepeau
- 15Charles Piutau
Replacements
- 16Samiuela Moli
- 17Joe Apikotoa
- 18Tau Koloamatangi
- 19Semisi Paea
- 20Solomone Funaki
- 21Sione Vailanu
- 22Sonatane Takulua
- 23Fine Inisi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 563m | Carry metres | 256m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 5 | Offloads | 5 |
| 183 | Passes | 93 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Tackles made | 159 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 75.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 15 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Lineout success | 44.0% |
| 21 | Lineouts won | 4 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 92 | Rucks won | 61 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 18 |
| 704m | Kick metres | 570m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 8 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.