Wales v Portugal
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 8
16 September 2023Allianz Riviera, Nice
What the model says about Wales v Portugal
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 28 m
- Temperature
- 22.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.9 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Dewi Lake(c)-5.3
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Christ Tshiunza
- 5Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Johnny Williams
- 13Mason Grady+3.4
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Corey Domachowski
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Adam Beard+1.0
- 20Taine Basham
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Sam Costelow+2.7
- 23Josh Adams+7.4
Portugal
- 1Francisco Fernandes
- 2Mike Tadjer
- 3Anthony Alves
- 4Martim Bello
- 5Steevy Cerqueira
- 6Joao Granate
- 7Nicolas Martins
- 8Rafael Simoes
- 9Samuel Marques
- 10Jeronimo Portela
- 11Rodrigo Marta
- 12Tomás Appleton(c)
- 13Jose Lima
- 14Vincent Pinto
- 15Nuno Sousa Guedes
Replacements
- 16David Costa
- 17Lionel Campergue
- 18Diogo Hasse Ferreira
- 19Thibault de Freitas
- 20David Wallis
- 21Pedro Lucas
- 22Joris Moura
- 23Raffaele Storti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Possession | 43.0% |
| 50.0% | Territory | 50.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 636m | Carry metres | 373m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 11 | Offloads | 8 |
| 160 | Passes | 151 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 112 | Tackles made | 156 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 75.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 97 | Rucks won | 68 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 933m | Kick metres | 1065m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.