England v Japan
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 12
17 September 2023Allianz Riviera, Nice
What the model says about England v Japan
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 28 m
- Temperature
- 23.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Courtney Lawes(c)-2.7
- 7Ben Earl+3.7
- 8Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 13Joe Marchant
- 14Jonny May-3.0
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19George Martin+7.1
- 20Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22Marcus Smith-0.6
- 23Ollie Lawrence-1.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0% | Possession | 34.0% |
| 61.0% | Territory | 39.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 533m | Carry metres | 324m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 24 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 7 | Offloads | 6 |
| 167 | Passes | 96 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 83 | Tackles made | 174 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 24 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | Lineout success | 67.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 82.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 99 | Rucks won | 54 |
| 5 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 42 | Kicks from hand | 37 |
| 1175m | Kick metres | 925m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 13 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.