France v Namibia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
96 – 0
21 September 2023Orange Velodrome, Marseille
What the model says about France v Namibia
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 21.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.8 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Cyril Baille+5.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Cameron Woki-3.5
- 5Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 8Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Jonathan Danty+3.7
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Pierre Bourgarit
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 21Baptiste Couilloud
- 22Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 23Melvyn Jaminet
Namibia
- 1Des Sethie
- 2Louis van der Westhuizen
- 3Aranos Coetzee
- 4Mahepisa Tjeriko
- 5Adriaan Ludick
- 6Max Katjijeko
- 7Johan Retief
- 8Prince ǃGaoseb
- 9Jacques Theron
- 10Cliven Loubser
- 11JC Greyling
- 12Danco Burger
- 13Johan Deysel(c)
- 14Gerswin Mouton
- 15Andre van der Berg
Replacements
- 16Obert Nortje
- 17Jason Benade
- 18Haitembu Shikufa
- 19PJ van Lill
- 20Richard Hardwick
- 21Oela Blaauw
- 22Alcino Izaacs
- 23Divan Rossouw
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 38.0% | Territory | 62.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 840m | Carry metres | 403m |
| 19 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 10 | Offloads | 2 |
| 142 | Passes | 111 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Tackles made | 64 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 55.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 70.0% |
| 19 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 78.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 41 | Rucks won | 78 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 1028m | Kick metres | 516m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tries | — |
| 12 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.