Argentina v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 10
22 September 2023Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne
What the model says about Argentina v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 486 m
- Temperature
- 14.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Eduardo Bello
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Juan Martín González
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Emiliano Boffelli
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Agustin Creevy+2.4
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 19Pedro Rubiolo
- 20Rodrigo Bruni-7.2
- 21Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 22Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 23Lucio Cinti-5.6
Samoa
- 1James Lay
- 2Seilala Lam
- 3Paul Alo-Emile
- 4Brian Alainu'uese
- 5Chris Vui(c)
- 6Theo McFarland
- 7Fritz Lee
- 8Steven Luatua
- 9Jonathan Taumateine
- 10Christian Leali'ifano
- 11Ben Lam
- 12Tumua Manu
- 13Ulupano Seuteni
- 14Nigel Ah Wong
- 15Duncan Paia'aua
Replacements
- 16Sama Malolo
- 17Charlie Faumuina
- 18Michael Alaalatoa
- 19Taleni Seu
- 20Jordan Taufua
- 21Melani Matavao
- 22D'Angelo Leuila
- 23Danny Toala
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 59.0% | Territory | 41.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 388m | Carry metres | 132m |
| 2 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 9 |
| 5 | Offloads | 1 |
| 173 | Passes | 79 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 79 | Tackles made | 139 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 73.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 78.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 85 | Rucks won | 47 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 22 |
| 530m | Kick metres | 597m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.