England v Chile
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
71 – 0
23 September 2023Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille
What the model says about England v Chile
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 41 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Bevan Rodd
- 2Theo Dan-3.8
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4David Ribbans
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 7Jack Willis
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 11Max Malins
- 12Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 13Elliot Daly-1.4
- 14Henry Arundell
- 15Marcus Smith-0.6
Replacements
- 16Jack Walker
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 20Ben Earl+3.7
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Joe Marchant
Chile
- 1Salvador Lues
- 2Augusto Böhme
- 3Matias Dittus
- 4Clemente Saavedra
- 5Javier Eissmann
- 6Martin Sigren(c)
- 7Ignacio Silva
- 8Alfonso Escobar
- 9Benjamin Videla
- 10Rodrigo Fernández
- 11Franco Velarde
- 12Matías Garafulic
- 13Domingo Saavedra
- 14Cristóbal Game
- 15Francisco Urroz
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 685m | Carry metres | 256m |
| 15 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 28 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| 202 | Passes | 100 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 103 | Tackles made | 140 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 75.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 28 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Lineout success | 69.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 89.0% | Scrum success | 75.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 83 | Rucks won | 65 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 14 |
| 674m | Kick metres | 435m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | — |
| 8 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.