New Zealand v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
73 – 0
5 October 2023Groupama Stadium, Lyon
What the model says about New Zealand v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 192 m
- Temperature
- 14.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane(c)+0.2
- 8Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Leicester Faingaʻanuku
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Ethan Blackadder
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Caleb Clarke+9.0
Uruguay
- 1Mateo Sanguinetti
- 2Germán Kessler
- 3Diego Arbelo
- 4Ignacio Dotti
- 5Manuel Leindekar
- 6Manuel Ardao
- 7Lucas Bianchi
- 8Manuel Diana
- 9Santiago Arata
- 10Felipe Etcheverry
- 11Nicolas Freitas
- 12Andrés Vilaseca(c)
- 13Tomas Inciarte
- 14Gaston Mieres
- 15Rodrigo Silva
Replacements
- 16Guillermo Pujadas
- 17Matias Benitez
- 18Ignacio Péculo
- 19Juan Manuel Rodriguez
- 20Santiago Civetta
- 21Agustin Ormaechea
- 22Felipe Berchesi
- 23Juan Manuel Alonso
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0% | Possession | 37.0% |
| 59.0% | Territory | 41.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 843m | Carry metres | 269m |
| 15 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 46 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 11 | Offloads | 2 |
| 228 | Passes | 96 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Tackles made | 191 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 46 |
| 10 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 67.0% |
| 7 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 88.0% | Scrum success | 57.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 119 | Rucks won | 57 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 10 |
| 671m | Kick metres | 253m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | — |
| 9 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.