Wales v Georgia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 19
7 October 2023Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes
What the model says about Wales v Georgia
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 30 m
- Temperature
- 16.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Dewi Lake(c)-5.3
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 6Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 13George North+8.6
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Henry Thomas
- 19Christ Tshiunza
- 20Taine Basham
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Dan Biggar+0.4
- 23Mason Grady+3.4
Georgia
- 1Guram Gogichashvili
- 2Shalva Mamukashvili
- 3Beka Gigashvili
- 4Nodar Cheishvili
- 5Konstantine Mikautadze
- 6Mikheil Gachechiladze
- 7Beka Saginadze
- 8Tornike Jalagonia
- 9Vasil Lobzhanidze
- 10Luka Matkava
- 11Davit Niniashvili
- 12Merab Sharikadze(c)
- 13Giorgi Kveseladze
- 14Akaki Tabutsadze
- 15Lasha Khmaladze
Replacements
- 16Vano Karkadze
- 17Nika Abuladze
- 18Irakli Aptsiauri
- 19Lado Chachanidze
- 20Giorgi Tsutskiridze
- 21Gela Aprasidze
- 22Tedo Abzhandadze
- 23Demur Tapladze
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | Possession | 51.0% |
| 41.0% | Territory | 59.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 519m | Carry metres | 492m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 16 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 9 | Offloads | 7 |
| 144 | Passes | 126 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 163 | Tackles made | 114 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 10 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 72.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 63 | Rucks won | 91 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Kicks from hand | 36 |
| 1579m | Kick metres | 1133m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.