France v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 14
31 October 2003WIN Stadium, Wollongong · neutral venue
What the model says about France v USA
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 14 m
- Temperature
- 16.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 39 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Yannick Bru(c)
- 3Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 4David Auradou-6.7
- 5Olivier Brouzet
- 6Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 7Patrick Tabacco
- 8Christian Labit
- 9Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 10Gerald Merceron
- 11David Bory
- 12Damien Traille+3.1
- 13Brian Liebenberg
- 14Pepito Elhorga
- 15Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Replacements
- 16Raphael Ibanez-4.5
- 17Sylvain Marconnet+0.2
- 18Jerome Thion-2.8
- 19Olivier Magne+10.5
- 20Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 21Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 22Aurelien Rougerie-0.2
USA
- 1Mike MacDonald
- 2Kirk Khasigian
- 3Dan Dorsey
- 4Alec Parker
- 5Luke Gross
- 6Kort Schubert
- 7Dave Hodges(c)
- 8Dan Lyle
- 9Kevin Dalzell
- 10Mike Hercus
- 11Riaan van Zyl
- 12Salesi Sika
- 13Phillip Eloff
- 14David Fee
- 15John Buchholz
Replacements
- 16Matt Wyatt
- 17Jacob Waasdorp
- 18Gerhard Klerck
- 19Jurie Gouws
- 20Matt Sherman
- 21Jason Keyter
- 22Mose Timoteo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0% | Possession | 29.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 525m | Carry metres | 384m |
| 19 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 19 | Offloads | 14 |
| 142 | Passes | 104 |
Defence
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Tackles made | 59 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 81.3% | Lineout success | 68.4% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 12 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 47 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 544m | Kick metres | 264m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 15 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 12 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.