Scotland v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 0
30 September 2019Kobe Misaki Stadium, Kobe
What the model says about Scotland v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 10:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 25.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.8 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Stuart McInally(c)-3.8
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 7Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 8Blade Thomson
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Maitland+4.2
- 12Sam Johnson
- 13Chris Harris+7.0
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Duncan Taylor
Samoa
- 1Logovi'i Mulipola
- 2Ray Niuia
- 3Michael Alaalatoa
- 4Filo Paulo
- 5Kane Le'aupepe
- 6Chris Vui
- 7TJ Ioane
- 8Jack Lam
- 9Melani Matavao
- 10Tusi Pisi
- 11Ed Fidow
- 12Henry Taefu
- 13Alapati Leiua
- 14Belgium Tuatagaloa
- 15Tim Nanai-Williams
Replacements
- 16Seilala Lam
- 17Paul Alo-Emile
- 18Jordan Lay
- 19Piula Fa'asalele
- 20Josh Tyrell
- 21Pele Cowley
- 22Ulupano Seuteni
- 23Kieron Fonotia
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 534m | Carry metres | 299m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 10 | Offloads | 6 |
| 161 | Passes | 115 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Tackles made | 108 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 33 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 83.3% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 76 | Rucks won | 76 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 720m | Kick metres | 612m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.