South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 33
22 August 2026Ellis Park, Johannesburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 1716 m
- Temperature
- 18.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Wilco Louw-1.7
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Paul de Villiers
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Grant Williams-4.8
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Zachary Porthen
- 19Cobus Wiese
- 20André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 21Marco van Staden-5.4
- 22Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 23Manie Libbok-3.8
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Josh Lord-2.2
- 5Fabian Holland
- 6Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 7Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Ruben Love
- 11Josh Moorby
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Peter Lakai+5.9
- 20Simon Parker
- 21Kyle Preston
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Leroy Carter
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 60.0% | Territory | 40.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 96 | Carries | 86 |
| 341m | Carry metres | 255m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 25 |
| 2 | Offloads | 4 |
| 108 | Passes | 125 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 89 | Tackles made | 129 |
| 70.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 25 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 14 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 75.0% | Scrum success | 79.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 73 | Rucks won | 56 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 371m | Kick metres | 530m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.