Japan v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 12
5 September 2026Denka Big Swan Stadium
What the model says about Japan v Canada
Conditions
- Kick-off
- 05:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 1 m
- Temperature
- 22.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
The ground from above
Matchday squads
Japan
- 1Takato Okabe
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Jack Cornelsen
- 5Harry Hockings
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Kanji Shimokawa
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Naoto Saitō(c)
- 10Ryunosuke Ito
- 11Haruto Kida
- 12Yuya Hirose
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Inoke Burua
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Kenji Sato
- 17Sojiro Otsuka
- 18Takumi Inaba
- 19Michael Stolberg
- 20Esei Haangana
- 21Tiennan Costley
- 22Kenta Fukuda
- 23Sam Greene
Canada
- 1Sam Miller
- 2Foster Dewitt
- 3Kyle Steeves
- 4Daragh Doyle
- 5Izzak Kelly
- 6Mason Flesch
- 7Sion Parry
- 8Lucas Rumball(c)
- 9Jesse Kilgour
- 10Spencer Jones
- 11Liam James
- 12Ben LeSage
- 13Isaac Olson
- 14Kyle Tremblay
- 15Takoda McMullin
Replacements
- 16Dewald Kotze
- 17Emerson Prior
- 18Bryce Worden
- 19Barnaby Waddell
- 20Cody Nhanala
- 21Jason Higgins
- 22Jacob Ince
- 23Jamie Armstrong
What happened in the phases
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 119 | Carries | 89 |
| 572m | Carry metres | 253m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 34 | Defenders beaten | 20 |
| 7 | Offloads | 7 |
| 171 | Passes | 145 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Tackles made | 153 |
| 74.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 20 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 34 |
| — | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Lineout success | 77.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 17 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 75.0% |
| 12 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 80 | Rucks won | 60 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kicks from hand | 18 |
| 511m | Kick metres | 468m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.