New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
50 – 19
10 October 2026Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 06:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 16.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.2 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor(c)-2.6
- 3Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Josh Lord-2.2
- 6Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 7Peter Lakai+5.9
- 8Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Leroy Carter
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 20Anton Segner
- 21Kyle Preston
- 22Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 23Josh Moorby
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Jeremy Williams
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson(c)+1.1
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 11Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Isaac Henry
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Possession | 43.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 160 | Carries | 105 |
| 470m | Carry metres | 328m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 23 |
| 7 | Offloads | 5 |
| 212 | Passes | 166 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 144 | Tackles made | 200 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 23 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 124 | Rucks won | 84 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 606m | Kick metres | 473m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 6 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.