Australia v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 43
17 October 2026Accor Stadium, Sydney
What the model says about Australia v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 05:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 15.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.8 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Forecast for the day of the match, from Open-Meteo. It will be replaced by what the weather actually did once the archive reaches that day.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Aidan Ross
- 2Josh Nasser-13.8
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Jeremy Williams
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson(c)+1.1
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Declan Meredith
- 11Harry Potter-1.0
- 12Isaac Henry
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Massimo De Lutiis
- 19Josh Canham
- 20Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 21Kalani Thomas
- 22Harry McLaughlin-Phillips
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
New Zealand
- 1George Bower+1.1
- 2Codie Taylor(c)-2.6
- 3Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Fabian Holland
- 6Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 7Peter Lakai+5.9
- 8Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Josh Moorby
- 12Timoci Tavatavanawai
- 13Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Xavier Numia
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 20Du'Plessis Kirifi
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Chay Fihaki
- 23Rieko Ioane+3.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 55.0% | Territory | 45.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 174 | Carries | 142 |
| 681m | Carry metres | 605m |
| 14 | Clean breaks | 14 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 36 |
| 20 | Offloads | 16 |
| 298 | Passes | 216 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 165 | Tackles made | 212 |
| 74.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 36 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 3 | Dominant tackles | 1 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 73.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 129 | Rucks won | 101 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 370m | Kick metres | 488m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 7 |
| 3 | Conversions | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.