Canada vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 3.8%95.2% IrelandIreland 97.8%1.2% CanadaCanada 2.5%96.5% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Ireland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 56 Ireland and 2 Ireland, half of them between 40 Ireland and 8 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 41 and 94 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 36-15 on a tight afternoon and 50-29 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Ireland.
Canada 1255, Ireland 2351 — 1096 points, favouring Ireland
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–1–8Ireland9 meetings, 1987 to 2016 · Ireland by 25.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-12 | Ireland 52–21 Canada | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2015-09-19 | Ireland 50–7 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
| 2013-06-15 | Canada 14–40 Ireland | — | BMO Field |
| 2009-05-23 | Canada 6–25 Ireland | — | Thunderbird Stadium |
| 2008-11-08 | Ireland 55–0 Canada | — | Thomond Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.