Canada vs Ireland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 3.6%95.4% IrelandIreland 96.7%2.3% CanadaCanada 3.0%96.0% IrelandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 54 Ireland and 2 Ireland, with the middle run at 21 Ireland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 86 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-26 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Ireland.
Canada 661, Ireland 1884 — 1223 points, favouring Ireland
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–3Ireland3 meetings, 1987 to 2016 · Ireland by 33.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-12 | Ireland 52–21 Canada | — | Aviva Stadium |
| 2015-09-19 | Ireland 50–7 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
| 1987-05-30 | Ireland 46–19 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Carisbrook(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.