Canada vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 13.9%85.1% ItalyItaly 93.1%5.9% CanadaCanada 9.9%89.1% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 43 Italy and 6 Canada, with the middle run at 14 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-14 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours Italy.
Canada 661, Italy 1367 — 706 points, favouring Italy
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–4Italy4 meetings, 2003 to 2019 · Italy by 13.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-26 | Italy 48–7 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Best Denki Stadium |
| 2016-06-26 | Canada 18–20 Italy | — | BMO Stadium, Toronto |
| 2015-09-26 | Italy 23–18 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Elland Road(neutral) |
| 2003-10-21 | Italy 19–14 Canada | Rugby World Cup | GIO Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.