Canada vs Italy
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 12.2%86.8% ItalyItaly 95.2%3.8% CanadaCanada 7.8%91.2% ItalyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Canada v Italy, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 38 Italy and 5 Canada, half of them between 24 Italy and 3 Italy, with the middle run at 11 Italy.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-17 on a tight afternoon and 40-29 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps Italy.
Canada 1255, Italy 1827 — 572 points, favouring Italy
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada2–0–8Italy10 meetings, 1983 to 2019 · Italy by 15.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-26 | Italy 48–7 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Best Denki Stadium |
| 2016-06-26 | Canada 18–20 Italy | — | BMO Stadium, Toronto |
| 2015-09-26 | Italy 23–18 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Elland Road(neutral) |
| 2012-06-15 | Canada 16–25 Italy | — | BMO Field |
| 2006-11-25 | Italy 41–6 Canada | — | — |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.