Canada vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Canada 2.9%96.1% New ZealandNew Zealand 98.2%0.8% CanadaCanada 1.9%97.1% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Canada v New Zealand, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 57 New Zealand and 2 New Zealand, half of them between 39 New Zealand and 9 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 42 and 96 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 37-16 on a tight afternoon and 51-30 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Canada winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Canada, a bar to the left helps New Zealand.
Canada 1255, New Zealand 2476 — 1222 points, favouring New Zealand
Canada are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–7New Zealand7 meetings, 1980 to 2019 · New Zealand by 50.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-02 | New Zealand 63–0 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Showa Denko Dome Oita |
| 2011-10-02 | New Zealand 79–15 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Hnry Stadium |
| 2007-06-16 | New Zealand 64–13 Canada | — | Waikato Stadium |
| 2003-10-17 | New Zealand 68–6 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Marvel Stadium(neutral) |
| 1995-04-22 | New Zealand 73–7 Canada | — | Eden Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.