Canada vs New Zealand
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Canada 4.0%95.0% New ZealandNew Zealand 95.5%3.5% CanadaCanada 3.7%95.3% New ZealandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Canada wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 53 New Zealand and 2 New Zealand, with the middle run at 21 New Zealand.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why Canada are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Canada, negative favours New Zealand.
Canada 661, New Zealand 2045 — 1384 points, favouring New Zealand
Canada are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Canada0–0–4New Zealand4 meetings, 1991 to 2019 · New Zealand by 51.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-02 | New Zealand 63–0 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Showa Denko Dome Oita |
| 2011-10-02 | New Zealand 79–15 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Hnry Stadium |
| 2003-10-17 | New Zealand 68–6 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Marvel Stadium(neutral) |
| 1991-10-20 | New Zealand 29–13 Canada | Rugby World Cup | Stade Nord (Lille Metropole)(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.